Since late 2023, Israel has been working to establish a new security equation in the region, following attacks launched by Palestinian resistance factions around the Gaza Strip. This equation includes expanding the security zone around Israel to prevent the emergence of new threats in the future, in addition to employing “a long military arm and excessive force” by expanding the scope of military operations beyond its borders.
While Israel continues to insist on the disarmament of southern Syria and its continued presence in the areas it entered in late 2024 and early 2025 in the Quneitra and Damascus countrysides, it is also preparing to launch a new phase of military operations in Gaza, aiming to seize complete control of the Strip and end any presence of Palestinian factions. This is an attempt to leverage the changes taking place in Palestine and Syria to expand its security sphere.
Israeli and American pressure aimed at disarming the Lebanese Hezbollah is expected to continue, with threats of a return to military operations against the group looming. The group’s continued possession of weapons will leave the door open for it to re-emerge as a threat to Israel over time.
Tel Aviv is also working to establish a reality based on the use of military force against targets far from its borders when it feels the need to do so. In this context, repeated attacks on Iran have been launched to undermine its missile capabilities and harm its nuclear program. It also periodically launches strikes against the Houthi group in Yemen. The most recent strike occurred in the last week of August 2025, when Israel targeted the Houthi-affiliated government in response to the group launching a ballistic missile towards Israeli targets.
It’s clear that Israel views the Trump administration’s strong support for Tel Aviv as an opportunity to establish a new equation in the region. US envoy to Syria and Lebanon, Tom Barak, made this clear when he said: “Israel does not recognize the Sykes-Picot borders of October 7, 2023, and will go wherever it wants, whenever it wants.”
It’s not unlikely that the coming period will witness a new wave of Israeli escalation against the Lebanese Hezbollah, in addition to directing precision strikes against Iranian-backed Iraqi factions. What makes this scenario more likely is the convergence of Netanyahu’s desires with the Trump administration’s. Netanyahu wants to ensure a new security equation is established, while the Trump administration seeks to further weaken Iran and push it to the negotiating table with a lower ceiling.
